“AI is best understood as a tool to lower the cost of prediction. And what are the consequences of cheaper prediction? First, more and more problems will be framed as prediction problems, because that makes the solution cheaper.Cognitive learning test second, cheaper prediction increases the value of three key complementary assets: data, judgment, and action.” – darko lovrich can HR become a prediction machine?Cognitive learning test rethinking AI and talent

Discussions about AI frequently center on technological issues, lost in buzzwords and arcana that may relate to “how” questions, but do much to obscure the “why” and “what” questions.Cognitive learning test in a thoughtful new book, prediction machines, ajay agrawal and colleagues at the university of toronto provide a much needed antidote to the overhyped AI discussion that dominates most forums.Cognitive learning test the authors use classic principles from economics to demystify why AI is on the rise, what it means for leaders, businesses, and industries, and how organizations can derive more value from it.Cognitive learning test their ideas have important implications for HR, which we discuss in this article.

The main thesis of prediction machines is deceptively simple – that AI is best understood as a tool to lower the cost of prediction.Cognitive learning test and what are the consequences of cheaper prediction? First, more and more problems will be framed as prediction problems, because that makes the solution cheaper.Cognitive learning test second, cheaper prediction increases the value of three key complementary assets: data, judgment, and action. In other words, in a world where prediction becomes commoditized the main competitive advantage organizations will have is the ownership of data, the judgment to interpret the predictions derived from that data, and the ability to act and make decisions based on such judgments.Cognitive learning test

Applying their central thesis to the field of HR is straightforward. For example, recruiting is about predicting candidate’s performance in a certain job (not in absolute terms, but rather, compared to to other existing candidates).Cognitive learning test development is the prediction of how much candidates will improve with coaching and training, or how much better they are likely to get. Compensation is about predicting attraction and retention at different levels of benefits packages.Cognitive learning test workforce planning is the prediction of future talent needs in your business or industry, or a bet on how the job market will change. And so on.Cognitive learning test

While application is straightforward, we should note that predictive ability of HR is a gold standards few organizations presently reach. How can a company claim that they have a good model of leadership potential if they fail to predict how leaders will perform in the future?Cognitive learning test how can organizations be satisfied with their learning, training, and development programs if they cannot predict the ROI of such interventions?Cognitive learning test for the most part such predictions are rarely or never tested – unlike science, HR tends to subject its claims to rare falsification.

The second consequence of cheaper prediction highlighted by agrawal and colleagues is even more instructive.Cognitive learning test when the cost of prediction decreases, to the point of being free, data, judgment and action become the scarce and most valuable resources. Prediction machines are built on and enabled by large quantities of high quality data.Cognitive learning test without it, the old adage of garbage in garbage out rules. Secondly, while prediction machines can supply insights, these insights still require seasoned judgment to draw the right conclusion.Cognitive learning test and, finally, without taking decisive action on conclusions prediction has no value.

Imagine a superior predictive machine for talent management – call it futureyou.Cognitive learning test it can identify employee potential with the highest accuracy, and estimate the likely performance gains you can expect from different interventions.Cognitive learning test given the current state of affairs in employee selection and development, that would no doubt be a game-changer.

However, before you can implement futureyou in your organization, you will need to ensure that a few key requirements are in place.Cognitive learning test first and foremost, you will need good data connecting employee characteristics with their performance, preferably over an extended period of time.Cognitive learning test secondly, you will need to judge how much performance gains are really worth to you, and what your culture and organization is ready to do to bring them about, or even tolerate them.Cognitive learning test finally, you will have to have access to a set of means for deploying them at scale if you really want to make a difference.

• improving the quantity and quality of your data – although we have spent much of the last 10 years hearing that data is the new oil and a source of competitive advantage in any field and industry, most organizations are still wondering how to collect it and use it.Cognitive learning test if you have big data on current or prospective employees and leaders, and you can link that data to relevant organizational outcomes, you are in a good place.Cognitive learning test if you don’t have sufficient data, consider investing in data/sensor systems that can help you harvest it within your organizations. Generally, you’ll need to be above a certain quantity and quality of data to make prediction work.Cognitive learning test

• improve the quality of your judgment . For many organizations a set of vendors will likely provide prediction services – yet, they will still not be able to outsource the judgment required to act on these predictions.Cognitive learning test the ability to draw the right conclusions from the insights provided, and suggest the right interventions, will be highly contextual to each organization, and a key driver of your future business value.Cognitive learning test the good news is that you don’t need to turn your HR team into data scientists – it is sufficient if they are able to understand the main implications that different predictions have for their business, and they are able to make evidence-based decisions on that basis.Cognitive learning test

• improve your ability to act . Prediction machines don’t quite focus on interventions – they are diagnostic tools.. You will need to add an intervention loop, consisting of: a) judgment about which data to focus on; b) judgment about which intervention to try; amd c) measurement of results.Cognitive learning test you will need to own this loop, and know its value not just as a tool to improve your organization, but also as an asset to enhance future predictions.Cognitive learning test

Darko lovrich is focused on the people side of strategic transformation and innovation as well as advising start-ups in the people analytics, psychology, and neuroscience space.Cognitive learning test in his work he combines strategy and psychology to clarify an organization’s vision and mission and to build a system that can execute that vision.Cognitive learning test darko is particularly attracted to big missions and large-scale transformations. Prior to incandescent, darko was a fellow of the world economic forum, where he worked with public and private sector leaders to understand our changing world, including deeper examinations of the impact of digital technologies on other industries, the future of health, the dynamics of resource scarcity, and the political realities of the arab world.Cognitive learning test he started his career with goldman sachs as a human capital analyst, subsequently joining deloitte to focus on change management and post-merger integration.Cognitive learning test both of these experiences provided insights into how people and organizations pursue (or avoid) strategic change.

Darko holds five university degrees (two bachelors and three masters) in the fields of psychology (warwick), psychiatry (oxford), business (zagreb), foresight (houston) and leadership (WEF in cooperation with wharton, columbia, INSEAD and LBS).Cognitive learning test he now feels he is credentialed enough and is actively avoiding further university applications.

Dr. Tomas chamorro-premuzic is an international authority in psychological profiling, talent management, leadership development, and people analytics.Cognitive learning test he is the chief talent scientist at manpower group, co-founder and CEO of brazenx, and professor of business psychology at both university college london, and columbia university.Cognitive learning test he has previously held academic positions at new york university and the london school of economics, and lectured at harvard business school, stanford business school, london business school, johns hopkins, IMD, and INSEAD, as well as being the CEO at hogan assessment systems.Cognitive learning test

Dr. Tomas has published 9 books and over 140 scientific papers (h index 60), making him one of the most prolific social scientists of his generation.Cognitive learning test his work has received awards by the american psychological association and the international society for the study of individual differences, and the society for industrial-organizational psychology, to which he is a fellow.Cognitive learning test dr. Tomas is also the founding director of university college london's industrial-organizational and business psychology program, and the chief psychometric advisor to harvard's entrepreneurial finance lab.Cognitive learning test

Over the past 20 years, he has consulted to a range of clients in financial services (e.G., JP morgan, HSBC, goldman sachs), advertising (e.G., google, WPP, BBH), media (e.G., BBC, red bull, twitter, spotify), consumer goods (e.G., unilever, reckitt benckiser, P&G), fashion (e.G., LVMH, net-a-porter, valentino), government (e.G., british army, royal mail, NHS), and intergovernmental organizations (e.G., united nations and world bank).Cognitive learning test

Dr. Tomas' media career comprises over 100 TV appearances, including in the BBC, CNN, and sky, and regular features in harvard business review, the guardian, fast company, forbes, and the huffington post.Cognitive learning test dr. Tomas is a keynote speaker for the institute of economic affairs and the co-founder and chairman of metaprofiling, a digital start-up that enables organizations to identify entrepreneurial potential.Cognitive learning test he was born and raised in the villa freud district of buenos aires, but spent most of his professional career in london, and lives in brooklyn now.Cognitive learning test