The enhanced phase of the MJO is currently centered over the indian ocean and parts of the western maritime continent, with the suppressed phase over the pacific ocean and western hemisphere.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom daily upper-level velocity potential analyses continue to depict a well-defined wave-1 pattern during late may and into early june. Following a period where the MJO signal interfered with westward moving variability and remained stationary in RMM space, the latest mean upper and lower-level zonal wind anomalies clearly depict a robust and rapid eastward propagation of the MJO during the last seven days.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom for the upcoming week-1 and week-2 outlook periods, both the GEFS and ECMWF models are in fair agreement with the evolution of the MJO as it is forecast to continue propagating eastward with some weakening in amplitude during week-1.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom the ECMWF ensemble guidance is a bit faster in its eastward propagation during this time. By week-2, GEFS guidance suggests interference with some westward moving features over the maritime continent.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom however, kelvin wave activity forecast by some of the models is expected to help sustain the MJO where the enhanced region of convection is forecast to enter the maritime continent (phase 5) during week-2 period.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

No tropical cyclones formed during the past seven days, however there are two main regions of interest during week-1. First, a broad area of low pressure over the bay of campeche has been observed, with a moderate chance (40%) of cyclone formation during the next few days.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom regardless of formation, the northward transport of tropical moisture forecast is likely to trigger locally heavy rainfall over parts of eastern mexico, texas, and the lower mississippi valley of the U.S.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom during the next few days. Second, GFS and GEFS models show the development of a closed low in the arabian sea during the early portion of the week-1 period in association with the enhanced phase of the MJO over the indian ocean.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom anomalously positive sea surface temperatures (>1.5 degree celsius) and low deep layer shear over the arabian sea also support development.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom for the week-2 period, models indicate some potential for TC formation in the bay of bengal which is also tied to the active phase of the MJO forecast during this time.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom as the suppressed phase of the MJO moves into the eastern pacific and atlantic ocean basins, there is an increased chance that tropical cyclone activity will be suppressed into mid and possibly late june.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

The tropical precipitation outlook during the next two weeks is based on influences from el nino, model consensus among the CFS, ECMWF, and GEFS models, and MJO phase composites of historically observed rainfall.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom persistent week-1 and week-2 precipitation anomalies include below-average rainfall over the indian subcontinent, the tropical eastern pacific, and atlantic ocean basins.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom despite the recent enhancement of convection over the indian ocean associated with the MJO, the continuation of anomalous lower-level easterlies over the past few weeks have resulted in a delayed onset of the indian monsoon.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom local in-situ reports in india indicate pre-monsoonal temperatures to have exceeded 48 degrees celsius during the last week, and the anomalous heat is expected to accompany the suppressed convection over the region through the next two weeks.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom model guidance does suggest a weakening of the anomalous easterlies and the return to a normal monsoonal flow pattern towards the end of the week-2 period.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom over the western hemisphere, el nino continues to elevate the chances of above-average rainfall across the equatorial pacific, while the MJO favors below-average rainfall across parts of the east pacific, central america, and tropical atlantic.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom forecasts over africa are made in consultation with cpcs international desk, and can represent local-scale conditions in addition to global-scale variability.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

The full global tropics hazards and benefits outlook (GTH) is released once per week every tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom federal holidays. At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via webinar) open to all interested parties in which the latest conditions in the tropics and the just released outlook and associated impacts are discussed.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom there is an opportunity to ask questions after the briefing and the briefings are available at the live briefing archive and soon will be recorded.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

CPC also issues an operational update of this product every friday by 1730 UTC to further support the NWS regions. The update only spans the release period from june 1 through november 30 and a region from 120E to the prime meridian in longitude and from the equator to 40N in latitude.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom the update does not extend the time horizon of the product, but rather applies for the remaining 4 days of the previous week-1 time period and days 5-11 from the previous week-2 period.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom this page will depict both the original and updated outlook maps as well short text outlining the forecast rationale for any changes.

The global tropics hazards and benefits outlook is a forecast for areas with elevated odds for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming week-1 and week-2 time periods.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom the rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom above(below) median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and yellow respectively. Above(below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and below respectively.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Two measures of confidence are indicated, high (solid) and moderate (hatched) and are currently subjective in nature and not based on an objective system.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom work towards a probabilistic format of the product and so an objective measure of confidence is ongoing. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC wednesday to 00 UTC the following wednesday.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across the global tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other issues the user should be aware of.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom the discussion discusses the impacts in the tropics as well as potential impacts in the extratropics when relevant.

Madden-julian oscillation (MJO), strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric kelvin waves (KW), equatorial rossby waves (ERW), african easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.E.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).

The outlook maps are currently created subjectively based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom the final depiction is an assessment of these forecast tools based on a number of factors to create the final product. Work is ongoing to create an objective consolidation of some of the available forecast tools to serve as a first guess for the forecaster.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and raw dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecasts as well as raw model forecast guidance.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the national hurricane center (NHC) and the central pacific hurricane center (CPHC)], the department of defense [the joint typhoon warning center (JTWC) and the naval postgraduate school (NPS)], the australian bureau of meteorology, taiwan central weather bureau, the state university of new york at albany (SUNY) and the center for climate and satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom

Known users include U.S. Government agencies such as NOAA [national weather service (NWS), river forecast centers (rfcs), the national marine fisheries service (NMFS), the department of the interior (U.S.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom forest service), aid organizations (U.S. And international red cross, USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors), international weather services and various media meteorologists.Cognitive learning theory in the classroom